Prediction Markets: The Risk of Harm Is Real. So Is Our Commitment to Mitigating It.

The National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG) today issued the following statement from Board President Derek Longmeier on the rapid growth of prediction markets and the organization’s approach to the gambling-related harm associated with them:

“Prediction markets have moved rapidly to a mainstream product used by millions of Americans. Regardless of how prediction markets are currently legally defined, NCPG believes it is functionally gambling and can expose consumers to many of the same risks and harms associated with traditional gambling. We’ve been clear about this well before we launched our Financial Trader Health and Safety Initiative earlier this year. And the exposure today — in scale, in speed, and in reach to new and often young users — is unprecedented. NCPG is neutral on whether prediction markets should be legal. We are not neutral on the need to prevent and reduce gambling-related harm wherever it occurs.

NCPG’s position that prediction markets carry gambling-related risks is supported by broad public sentiment. A recent Harris Poll conducted on behalf of NCPG found that 85% of Americans agree people can develop unhealthy or addictive behaviors related to prediction market platforms, while 84% believe these platforms should be treated similarly to gambling when it comes to consumer protections. 

For more than 50 years, NCPG’s mission has been to serve individuals and families experiencing gambling-related harm. That mission has never depended on a regulatory ruling or a legal label, and it does not now. People are experiencing real financial, emotional, and relationship consequences as a result of prediction markets. The harm is not theoretical, and we cannot wait to act. NCPG exists not to litigate whether prediction markets or other emerging activities meet a legal definition of gambling, but to prevent and reduce gambling-related harm wherever it occurs.

We have always been transparent that we are a donor-supported organization, fully auditable given our nonprofit status. Many of our members and donors are gambling operators. This allows us to go where the harm is, despite the lack of federal funding. Donor engagement does not mean endorsement. Membership, funding or collaboration does not give any person or organization control over NCPG’s research, advocacy, policy positions, or public statements

We welcome engagement from gambling companies, sports leagues, prediction market platforms, financial-services organizations, regulators, policymakers, consumer advocates, researchers, community organizations, and prevention, treatment, and recovery professionals to advocate for and build real consumer protections such as responsible-engagement tools, self-exclusion options, age verification, clear risk disclosures, and direct lines to help. Our goal is to get ahead of harm, and we consider the aforementioned protections to be minimum standards for entities offering gambling and functionally gambling products. 

This work is especially urgent given how quickly new platforms are reaching young Americans. The infrastructure to protect consumers has to move as fast as the platforms reaching them. Right now, it isn’t. 

NCPG will continue to follow the evidence, speak honestly about gambling-related harm and advocate for safeguards. 

— Derek Longmeier, President, NCPG Board of Directors